Storm Prediction Center Forecast


RSS Mesoscale Discussions from Storm Prediction Center

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397

WW 397 SEVERE TSTM TX 182235Z - 190600Z
      
WW 0397 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 397
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
535 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  South Plains and eastern Panhandle of Texas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning from 535
  PM until 100 AM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 3
    inches in diameter likely
  Scattered damaging winds and isolated significant gusts to 75
    mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Clusters of thunderstorms should affect a greater
proportion of the watch area through the evening, following
more-isolated severe storms.  Large hail and severe wind are the
main concerns.  Severe wind will be more of a threat with time into
this evening.  See SPC mesoscale discussion 1124 for initial
meteorological details.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 70
statute miles east and west of a line from 30 miles south of Lubbock
TX to 30 miles north northeast of Amarillo TX. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...WW 395...WW 396...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
3 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 65 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean storm motion vector
28030.

...Edwards

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396

WW 396 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 182035Z - 190400Z
      
WW 0396 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 396
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
235 PM MDT Tue Jun 18 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Southeast Colorado
  Northeast New Mexico
  Oklahoma Panhandle
  Texas Panhandle

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 235 PM until
  1000 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered large hail likely with isolated very large hail events
    to 2 inches in diameter possible
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue
to develop and intensify and otherwise move generally southeastward
across the region through evening.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 75
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Trinidad CO to 40 miles south southeast of Elkhart KS. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...WW 395...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
2 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 550. Mean storm motion vector
30025.

...Guyer

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 395

WW 395 TORNADO KS 181920Z - 190300Z
      
WW 0395 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 395
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
220 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  South-central and Eastern Kansas

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 220 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

* Primary threats include...
  A few tornadoes likely
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Scattered large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms including supercells are expected to
continue to develop initially across
south-central/east-central/northeast Kansas this afternoon, with
organization aided by a moderately strong belt of winds in the
low/mid-levels. A few tornadoes are possible, if not likely, across
the region through the afternoon/early evening. Storms may
eventually cluster and progress more southeastward this evening
toward/east of the I-35/I-135 corridors with a continued severe
risk.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 70 statute miles
north and south of a line from 20 miles east of Emporia KS to 10
miles north of Dodge City KS. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 394...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean
storm motion vector 27020.

...Guyer

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394

WW 394 SEVERE TSTM DC DE MD NJ PA VA CW 181810Z - 190200Z
      
WW 0394 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 394
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
210 PM EDT Tue Jun 18 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  District Of Columbia
  Delaware
  Eastern Maryland
  New Jersey
  Southeast Pennsylvania
  Northern and eastern Virginia
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Tuesday afternoon and evening from 210 PM until
  1000 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1.5 inches in diameter possible
  A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...At least isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are
expected to develop from southeast Pennsylvania into New Jersey,
where potential will exist for a couple of supercells with hail/wind
and potentially some tornado risk. Other storms will also increase
this afternoon south-southwestward across the Delmarva and broader
parts of northern/eastern Virginia to eastern Maryland, with
damaging winds and some hail possible in these areas.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 65
statute miles north and south of a line from 20 miles southeast of
Lakehurst NJ to 55 miles west southwest of Washington DC. For a
complete depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline
update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1.5 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A
few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 500. Mean storm motion vector
26025.

...Guyer

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 397 Status Reports

WW 0397 Status Updates
      
WW 0397 Status Image

STATUS FOR WATCH 0397 HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET
Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 396 Status Reports

WW 0396 Status Updates
      
WW 0396 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 396

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W PUB TO
30 NW LHX.

..SMITH..06/18/19

ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 396 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

COC009-011-025-055-071-089-099-101-182320-

CO 
.    COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BACA                 BENT                CROWLEY             
HUERFANO             LAS ANIMAS          OTERO               
PROWERS              PUEBLO              


NMC007-021-059-182320-

NM 
.    NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

COLFAX               HARDING             UNION               


OKC025-139-182320-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CIMARRON             TEXAS               

Read more

SPC Tornado Watch 395 Status Reports

WW 0395 Status Updates
      
WW 0395 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 395

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NNW DDC
TO 40 ENE DDC TO 20 WSW ICT TO 5 SSW EMP TO 10 WNW TOP.

..SQUITIERI..06/18/19

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...TOP...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 395 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC003-007-015-019-025-031-033-035-045-047-049-057-059-073-077-
087-095-097-139-151-173-177-191-182340-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDERSON             BARBER              BUTLER              
CHAUTAUQUA           CLARK               COFFEY              
COMANCHE             COWLEY              DOUGLAS             
EDWARDS              ELK                 FORD                
FRANKLIN             GREENWOOD           HARPER              
JEFFERSON            KINGMAN             KIOWA               
OSAGE                PRATT               SEDGWICK            
SHAWNEE              SUMNER              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.

Read more

SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 394 Status Reports

WW 0394 Status Updates
      
WW 0394 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 394

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW MRB
TO 5 N DCA TO 30 ENE SBY.

..SQUITIERI..06/18/19

ATTN...WFO...LWX...PHI...AKQ...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 394 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

DCC001-190040-

DC 
.    DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 


MDC009-017-019-033-037-039-045-047-190040-

MD 
.    MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

CALVERT              CHARLES             DORCHESTER          
PRINCE GEORGES       ST. MARYS           SOMERSET            
WICOMICO             WORCESTER           


VAC001-003-013-033-047-057-059-061-079-099-103-109-113-133-137-
153-157-159-177-179-193-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-190040-

VA 
.    VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ACCOMACK             ALBEMARLE           ARLINGTON           
Read more

SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Tue Jun 18 23:16:03 UTC 2019

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Tue Jun 18 23:16:03 UTC 2019.


SPC Jun 18, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
      
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0300 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Valid 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM WEST TX
INTO KS...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE PLAINS AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely across parts of the
central and southern Great Plains in multiple rounds this afternoon
through tonight. Other severe thunderstorms are expected across the
Mid-Atlantic region and parts of the Southeast.

...20z Update...

Remnants of long-lived MCS are progressing along the I-70 corridor
across KS. Leading edge of this activity is beginning to intensify
over northeast KS which may propagate a bit farther downstream than
earlier anticipated. Will expand higher severe probs across portions
of TOP CWA to account for these trends.

Strong boundary-layer heating across the High Plains has contributed
to near-dry adiabatic low-level lapse rates from southeast CO into
west TX. Convection will gradually expand in areal coverage along
this corridor over the next few hours before spreading into the ENH
Risk region.

..Darrow.. 06/18/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1152 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/

...Kansas...
An MCV will continue to drift generally eastward across
western/central Kansas through the afternoon and evening. A trend of
thinning/increasingly scattered cloud cover should occur through the
afternoon, aided by a modest MCV-peripheral dry slot. Expectations
are for more of a southeasterly low-level wind component to
materialize across central Kansas by mid/late afternoon, while
enhanced mid-level winds otherwise spread eastward across the
southern half of Kansas. Thunderstorms should initially intensify
across central/south-central Kansas by mid-afternoon, with moderate
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear/modest overall forcing
likely being conducive for semi-discrete supercells, at least for a
few hours duration. A few tornadoes will be possible aside from
severe hail/wind as storms spread east-southeastward toward and
across the I-35/I-135 corridor through late afternoon and
early/mid-evening.

...Oklahoma/Texas Panhandle to west/southwest Texas...
Timing of the peak/most-certain severe risk is a bit questionable
across parts of this region, but the potential exists for a
sub-regional corridor to be impacted by multiple rounds of severe
thunderstorms. At the very least, a conditional severe/supercell
risk will exist as early as mid/late afternoon across the Texas
Panhandle/Low Rolling Plains and western Oklahoma within a very
unstable environment. However, modest convergence and a tendency for
mid-level warming casts some uncertainty. At the very least, storms
are likely to move into/across the region later this evening with an
appreciable damaging wind/hail risk via one or more well-organized
clusters.

Farther south, a couple supercells should form over the higher
terrain of the TX Trans-Pecos with a primary risk of large hail.
Minor mid-level height rises suggest robust MLCIN will hold east of
the Pecos River, limiting the spatial extent of this threat. A
separate area of thunderstorms may form near the intersection of the
dryline and residual outflow boundary trailing from the central
Texas MCS. A deeply mixed boundary layer should support a few
supercells that might organize into a cluster this evening. Large
hail and severe wind should be the primary threats.

...CO Front Range/south-central High Plains...
Scattered thunderstorm development is likely over the Raton Mesa and
other parts of Southeast Colorado by peak heating as a minor
mid-level impulse in Utah crosses the southern Rockies. Amid 30-40
kt 500-mb westerlies, this activity should spread east and impinge
on richer boundary-layer moisture in the Texas Panhandle this
evening. At least on an isolated basis, supercells capable of large
hail and possibly some tornado/damaging wind risk can be expected as
storms spread east/southeastward.

...Mid-Atlantic States/Delmarva...
An area of organized severe potential is apparent across southeast 
PA, NJ, northern MD, and DE ahead of an MCV/weak surface cyclone
currently over western PA. Here, some enlargement to low-level
hodographs in conjunction with moderate boundary-layer heating of
low 70s dew points should support a risk for a few supercells
capable of a tornado or two and damaging winds/some hail. Refer to
Mesoscale Discussion 1115 for additional short-term details.

...Central Gulf Coast to Carolinas...
A belt of 20-30 kt west-southwesterly flow will persist amid
afternoon MLCAPE of 1000-2000 J/kg. This should again foster a
threat for mainly locally damaging wind as numerous multicells occur
through this afternoon.

...Montana/Northern High Plains...
Isolated strong to severe semi-low-topped thunderstorms will be
possible this afternoon into evening within a modestly
moist/unstable environment ahead of an
amplifying/southeastward-moving mid-level shortwave trough.
Well-mixed boundary layers could yield severe-caliber wind gusts
along with some localized/marginal hail potential.

Read more

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
          
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0207 PM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF COLUMBIA BASIN...

Confidence has increased in RH remaining low enough during the
afternoon in portions of the Columbia Basin that a critical area has
been introduced. Given the somewhat cooler temperatures and influx
of marine air, critical conditions will likely be low-end with RH
only slightly dipping below 20%. However, latest NWCC fuel guidance
indicates low elevation fine fuels are cured in the Basin and with
20-25 mph surface winds expected, an upgrade appears warranted.

In central Montana, thunderstorm coverage has remained isolated so
far today. However, with an upstream shortwave trough in northwest
Montana, coverage appears likely to become more scattered through
the afternoon. Precipitation trends will continue to be monitored.

..Wendt.. 06/18/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0139 AM CDT Tue Jun 18 2019/

...Synopsis...
A seasonably strong upper trough is expected to deepen across the
Northwest on Wednesday, as a surface low moves southeastward across
Montana and a cold front sweeps through the northern Rockies and
High Plains. 

...Columbia Basin Vicinity...
Another dry and breezy day is expected across the Columbia Basin
vicinity on Wednesday. Wind speeds should be higher compared to
D1/Tuesday, as stronger flow aloft mixes down within a cold
advection regime. RH is the primary uncertainty regarding critical
potential, with minimum RH values potentially remaining in the
20-30% range due to cooler surface temperatures. The Washington
portion of the elevated area appears to have a greater chance of
seeing critically low RH, and an upgrade across this area is
possible in subsequent outlooks. 

...Central Montana...
Dry and breezy post-frontal conditions are expected across much of
central MT Wednesday afternoon. Sustained winds of 15-25 mph and
minimum RH values of 15-25% will result in elevated to locally
critical meteorological conditions. However, some antecedent
rainfall is possible over this area on Tuesday into Tuesday night,
and there is uncertainty regarding fuel receptiveness even in the
absence of any precipitation. Due to these concerns, no areas have
been introduced, though an elevated delineation may become necessary
for areas that see only limited rainfall prior to Wednesday
afternoon.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more